ABOUT THE DATA

DRAFT — not reviewed by a lawyer and not in force yet. Draft of 2026-10-22

Where the numbers come from, and how a verdict is made.

How a verdict is made

For each grade a card can get, GradeOdds takes its sale price after selling fees and subtracts what it costs to get there: the card, postage both ways, the grading fee for the declared value, upcharges and supplies. Weighted by the chance of each grade, that is the expected profit. Your risk profile sets how much profit, return and chance of profit a BUY or GRADE IT needs.

The chance of a grade

It starts from the grader's population report for the card. A scan of your own copy moves it up or down by its centering, corners and surface, by factors that are published on the card's page.

Demo market

Until the licences for market data are in place, prices, offers and sales are simulated from the card catalogue, labelled DEMO everywhere. The catalogue, exchange rates and grading prices are real.

Data sources

  • TCGdexIn useUsed for: card catalogue (EN + JP), card → Cardmarket idProduct mappingTerms read on 2026-10-20
  • ECB euro reference ratesIn useUsed for: USD/GBP/JPY → EUR conversionTerms read on 2026-10-20
  • Demo market (simulated)In useUsed for: simulated prices, sales, populations and offers until licensed data arrives; always shown with DEMO DATATerms read on 2026-10-21
  • Cardmarket price guide (daily JSON)Licence being requestedUsed for: raw prices in the EU (EUR)Terms read on 2026-10-20
  • ScrydexLicence being requestedUsed for: graded prices, sold comps, populations, Vision identification, US raw pricesTerms read on 2026-10-20
  • PSA Public APILicence being requestedUsed for: official PSA grade distribution per card (gem rate)Terms read on 2026-10-20
  • PokeTraceLicence being requestedUsed for: backup graded prices, graded prices on Cardmarket by countryTerms read on 2026-10-20
  • PokemonPriceTrackerLaterUsed for: backup populations and gem rates across four gradersTerms read on 2026-10-20
  • GemRate APILaterUsed for: cross-grader populations and historyTerms read on 2026-10-20
  • PriceCharting APILaterUsed for: cross-check of PSA 10 guide valuesTerms read on 2026-10-20
  • eBay Browse API + Partner NetworkLaterUsed for: live listings (layer B) and affiliate linksTerms read on 2026-10-20